Policy
Simulation
Group

Pension Projection Models

Enhancements Introduced in Earlier Versions of the PSG Models (since 2004)

2008-Jun
Move GEMINI .xsa output file statistic (22) from the supplementary to the core survey questions. Add GEMINI .xsb and .xsc output files that have the same file layout as the .xsa output file. Add field scnsid_ind to STATS table in GEMINI input database with the new logical field controlling whether individual or adult-equivalent-couple benefits and earnings statistics are used to construct the statistics included in the GEMINI .scn and .sid output files. Change GEMINI input database parameter values used in the adult equivalents formula in the RCS mode and ESP+ mode benchmark runs in order to make statistic (41) in the GEMINI .sum output file a more conventional denominator in retirement income replacement rates. Add SSASIM .pfp output file, which contains annual values of PIA formula parameters: the three bendpoints and four formula percents for each of the three eligibility events. Add three certainty-equivalent statistics to GEMINI .sid output file and three certainty-equivalent statistics to GEMINI .scn output file. Add sid_crra field to STATS table in GEMINI input database for specifying the constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) parameter in the expected utility function used to calculate the new certainty-equivalent statistics. Add a new field to both the BEND_DI and BEND_RI tables that allows a change in the method of computing DI and OASI COLAs. Prior model versions always computed annual COLAs using a CPI-indexing method, but now there is the option to use an AWI-indexing method.

2008-May
Revise the source code of the PSG models so that the core models and utilities &mdash but not the various Toolkits &mdash can compile and execute under operating systems other than Windows. So far, this has been done successfully for Mac OS X (10.4+) and Debian 4.0 (32-bit) Linux. The purpose of this work is to gain access to more powerful hardware platforms such as the Mac Pro, which has eight Intel Xeon cores standard, and cloud computing facilities that offer scores of quad-core Linux servers for rent by the hour. Upgrade the Tcl interpreter included with the PSG models to Tcl 8.5.2 version. Upgrade the PSG models to SQLite 3.5.9 version. Add SSASIM INSURED table that includes the main policy parameter that determines whether an individual is "fully insured" for OASDI benefits. Provide a PENSIM xsall utility that automatically combines the many xs?NNNNN.YYY files produced during an OLC mode run into a single xs?NNNNN.all file that represents a genuine cross-sectional sample of individuals drawn at the survey moment during the survey year. Add to PENSIM the ability to trace the life events experienced by a spouse of a sample individual. Add to PENSIM pension behavior the possibility that individuals cashout the lumpsum equivalent of their vested benefits in career-earnings or terminal-earnings defined-benefit plans when the job ends before retirement, disability, or death. Add GEMINI .sid output file that contains information on each sample individual used to tabulate the scenario statistics contained in the .scn output file, which allows calculation of statistics that measure the variability of social security and pension benefits (a) across stochastic scenarios, (b) across cohort individuals within each scenario, and (c) across retirement years for each individual.

2008-Apr
Add an embedded-SQL capability to the RSF Toolkit's run specification language, which means that now all parameters in the input databases of the PSG models can be manipulated using the run specification language without having to work directly with the databases. Add PENSIM .mig output file that contains aggregate migration and population counts for the simulated birth cohort. Revise PENSIM schooling logic and tables so that native-born and foreign-born individuals can have different educational attainment distributions. Revise the GEMINI AAAF parameter so that it can be a negative number.

2008-Mar
Add ability to specify exemplary cohort individuals (ECI) using the RSF Toolkit's run specification language. Add to SSASIM input database "scaled earnings" profiles derived by OCACT from 2007 Trustees Report assumptions. Add PENSIM cross-sectional survey supplement 7 that contains statistics that can be used to determine how many individuals work beyond the age at which they are eligible for unreduced (or normal) benefits from the defined-benefit plan covering them on their current job; the new supplement to the PENSIM .xsa, .xsb, .xsc output files has been used by DOL/EBSA in a regulatory impact analysis.

2008-Feb
Revise the baseline PENSIM assumptions concerning the transition probabilities between the positive-annual-contribution state and the zero-annual-contribution state using MINT5 estimation results. Add PENSIM DBWITH1 table parameters to determine gender-specific probabilities of a married individual choosing a single-life annuity as the payout from a traditional defined-benefit pension plan (rather than the default, under federal law, joint-and-survivor payout); the new parameters are set to produce probabilities tabulated from 1992-2000 HRS data shown in the MINT5 final report. Add four earnings statistics to the GEMINI .xsa output file.

2008-Jan
Provide a free educational version of GEMINI and add the ESP+ mode benchmark run to the RSF Toolkit. Add ability to define a range of earnings that is excluded from OASDI taxable earnings, allowing specification of so-called "donut-hole" payroll tax reform provisions.


2007-Dec
Add to EDA Toolkit a page containing the numerical value of statistics that appear in the graph; make several other improvements in the EDA Toolkit.

2007-Nov
Add immigration and emigration ages to PENSIM .cov output file. Upgrade the PSG models to SQLite 3.5.2 version.

2007-Oct
No enhancements.

2007-Sep
Add disabled adult children to the PSG models. Add recovery from disability as a life event in PENSIM. Add zero-employer-matching savings-thrift plans to PENSIM using custom tabulations of 1996-97 private-sector and 1998 public-sector Employee Benefit Survey data performed by BLS staff at the request of EBSA. Add to GEMINI cross-sectional output files (.xsa, .xsb, .xsc) new supplements that contain information about beneficiary head counts using SSA beneficiary type definitions. Perform a cross-model validation test comparing beneficiary counts by benefit type in 2060 with estimates for 2060 in the Trustees Report, the results of which show that the PSG models produce estimates that are close to those of OCACT (except in the case of adult SI beneficiaries where the OCACT estimates seem too high given the upward trend in female labor force participation rates).

2007-Aug
No enhancements.

2007-Jul
Add to PENSIM cross-sectional output files (.xsa, .xsb, .xsc) a set of supplementary questions that produce statistics that can be compared to SCF data on defined-contribution balances. Begin adding logic and output statistics for zero-employer-matching savings-thrift plans, which are soon to be introduced into PENSIM. Improve the realism of the Markov process that determines annual transition probabilities in to and out of the state of defined-contribution participants making a zero annual contribution. Calibrate employer probabilities of offering different types of pension plans over the 1975-2005 period using publicly available data. Conduct two validation tests of PENSIM estimates of defined-contribution account balances using 2004 SCF data and 2005 data from the EBRI-ICI 401(k) database, and describe the validation test results in the PENSIM Overview.

2007-Jun
Provide a run specification file for a CBA mode run that produces stochastic results similar to those in the 2007 Trustees Report. Upgrade the PSG models to SQLite 3.4.0 version. Revise the effect of PENSIM INDBEHX retirement delay so that nobody delays retirement beyond age seventy. Add three sets of supplementary questions to core survey questions in the GEMINI .xsa output file.

2007-May
Add new PSG models benchmark runs that use 2007 Trustees Report intermediate-cost assumptions. Change the compiler collection used to build the PSG models from Open Watcom to GNU running under MinGW; the resulting models are slightly larger, but run noticeably faster: one-thousand scenario CBA mode runs are roughly the same speed, OLC mode runs are about twenty-five percent faster, and RCS mode runs are almost thirty percent faster. Add a supplement 5 to the three PENSIM cross-sectional survey output files (.xsa, .xsb, .xsc) that is a March-CPS-style prior-year-retrospective survey on annual earnings and annuity transactions. Add to PENSIM an exemplary cohort individual account saving feature that simulates account contributions, returns, and balance for a single individual, allowing PENSIM to generate simple projections of one individual for comparison with results from other studies (see, for example, the wildly misleading results in the CRS report by P. Purcell and D. Whitman, "Retirement Savings: How Much Will Workers Have When They Retire?" January 2007). Revise the GEMINI AAAF feature so that the annual actuarial adjustment factor can vary in value across calendar years. Add GEMINI .xsa output file that can be used to generate multiple-cohort cross-sectional survey output for a specified calendar year when GEMINI is operating in OLC mode.

2007-Apr
Change the database technology used by each PSG model so that the hundreds of Microsoft FoxPro files are replaced with a single-file SQLite database. Provide as part of the PSG models installation a Tcl language interpreter (tclkitsh.exe) as well as a Tcl SQLite dynamic link library (tclsqlite3.dll) so that any user can directly manipulate the model databases if the RSF Toolkit run specification language is not sufficient. Add a backup button to the RSF Toolkit. Add social security COLA offset reform to the list of reform provisions available in the RSF Toolkit Build interview. Add a tkprefs file that allows users to specify preferences about the Toolkits: the folder where backups are placed, the Trustees Report year, and the size of the Toolkit window and fonts. Add to PENSIM .pen output file a statistic that reports the couple's end-of-the-year rollover account balance. Add to the PENSIM .cov output file four statistics that report the number of years the individual held full-time jobs, held part-time jobs, was eligible for a defined-benefit pension plan, and was eligible for a defined-contribution pension plan. Add PENSIM INDBEHX table that contains individual behavior parameters are in the scope of the RSF Toolkit run specification language.

2007-Mar
Add to SSASIM AIME table five policy parameters that allow the specification of social security caregiver credit reforms. Add to the RSF Toolkit several new convenience features: multiple run specification file use, find and replace in all run specification files, and renaming of run specification files. Add to PENSIM cross-sectional survey output file a fourth optional supplement that focuses on pension eligibility and vesting a recent job endings. Add to the PENSIM DBVEST table four new parameters that allow the specification of maximum cliff vesting years across all defined-benefit pension plans, with the maximum possibly being different in the private and public sectors and/or possibly being implemented in different years. Add to the PENSIM DCVEST table four new parameters that allow the specification of maximum years to cliff vesting and maximum years to full graded vesting across all defined-contribution pension plans, with the maximum possibly being implemented in different years. Add PENSIM .age output file that contains selected individual statistics at each age in a specified age range. Add to the PENSIM .cov output file several statistics describing the longest job held by the individual. Add to PENSIM ASSETS table a so-called stable-value fund, revise the pension account asset-allocation (ACCTAA?) tables to allow investment in stable-value funds, and revise the cross-sectional survey output to include holdings of stable-value funds. Add to the PENSIM STAENR1 table an additional parameter having to do with automatic enrollment in defined-contribution pension plans. Add to PENSIM PAINVS table new parameters that allow the characterization of an "endorsement effect" caused by the selection of a default investment under automatic enrollment. Fix a bug in the out2bage utility inadvertently introduced by the source code changes made during February 2007.

2007-Feb
Add SSASIM and GEMINI trace output that confirms that negative PIA reductions at DI-to-OAI conversion are not applied in reforms that would appear to call for such reductions; this substantive change in logic was implemented in January of 2007. Extensively revise the source code of the PSG models to make the code more like C and less like C++, particularly with regard to string formatting and file reading and writing; the source code continues to use fundamental C++ features such as classes, templates, and inheritance. Add roughly two hundred tables in the PENSIM input database to the scope of the RSF Toolkit run specification language. Add the GEMINI TRACE table to the scope of the RSF Toolkit run specification language.

2007-Jan
Provide for the first time to the public a full-featured version of PENSIM that can simulate employer-sponsored pension accumulation and withdrawal. Revise the logic used to compute the maximum taxable earnings (MTE) level from the average wage index (AWI) so that it mimics more closely the actual administrative calculation.


2006-Dec
Revise the TFS Toolkit so that annual values of the income and cost rate are connected by lines if they are drawn from an actual scenario (rather than representing percentile values, which typically come from different scenarios each year). Provide a resce utility that computes the certainty-equivalent value of the distribution of an output statistic using either expected utility theory or cumulative prospect theory. Add to PENSIM a third cross-sectional survey, so that now up to three different cross-sectional surveys can be conducted in a single ESP mode run.

2006-Nov
Add to the RSF Toolkit Build interview the option of specifying an employer-sponsored pension (ESP) mode run, in anticipation of the public distribution of a pension-simulating version of PENSIM. Provide a Trust-Fund Solvency (TFS) Toolkit that produces a one-page summary that contains several solvency statistics and a time-series graph that shows income and cost rates in either deterministic or stochastic CBA mode or OLC mode runs. Add longevity indexing of the minimum PIA base amount in the SSASIM MINPIA table. Add to PENSIM a second cross-sectional survey, so that now up to two different cross-sectional surveys can be conducted in a single ESP mode run.

2006-Oct
No enhancements.

2006-Sep
Add to the RSF Toolkit the ability to see input database table values used by the base run by clicking a run specification language statement for a table with the right mouse button. Streamline the specification of spouses and kids in ECI mode runs and revise the ECI Toolkit to work with the new structure of the SSASIM input database tables. Add equity return and Treasury bill spread to the set of key SSASIM assumption variables, revise the run specification language to handle the new assumption variables, and revise several SSASIM output files to report their annual values. Add ability to make a one-time change in the wage-indexed level of minimum earnings required to earn a social security quarter of coverage. Add several PENSIM input database tables that allow more detailed specification of assets that can be held in pension accounts.

2006-Aug
No enhancements.

2006-Jul
Revise the RSF Toolkit in several ways and make it the standard interface to the PSG models. Provide an Exemplary Cohort Individual (ECI) Toolkit that automates extraction of output statistics to an Excel spreadsheet. Add a new employer-sponsored pension (ESP) mode of operation to the PSG models in anticipation of the public release of a pension-simulating version of PENSIM. Add to the EDA Toolkit the ability to create two-dimensional color histogram graphs that visualize the joint distribution of two continuous GEMINI output statistics.

2006-Jun
Provide a run specification file for a CBA mode run that produces stochastic results similar to those in the 2006 Trustees Report. Provide an Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) Toolkit for tabulating and graphing statistics from GEMINI output files. Add GEMINI .cpi output file containing annual values of the CPI index. Revise the out2bage utility used by the EDA Toolkit to generate .bAA output files so that it uses the .cpi output file to convert nominal dollar amounts into real dollar amounts. Add to GEMINI .sum output file two "level earnings" statistics that are suitable denominators for individual and couple replacement rates.

2006-May
Update SSASIM HISTORY and HISTMDR tables with statistics for recent years and add new HISTMR table, so that now the last historical year in PSG model simulations is 2004 instead of 1997. Provide a run specification file for a CBA mode run that produces stochastic results similar to those in the 2005 Trustees Report. Add PSG model benchmark runs that use intermediate-cost assumptions from the 2006 Trustees Report. Add low benefits-plus-earnings avoidance rate statistic to the GEMINI .sum output file.

2006-Apr
No enhancements.

2006-Mar
Add options for SSASIM to produce .sti and .sto output files in OLC mode runs. Improve logic of DI-to-OAI conversion for cohorts with fractional normal retirement ages, producing a smoother flow of beneficiaries from DI to OAI during years when the normal retirement age is increasing by a fraction of a year. Fix a bug in the calculation of PIA for individuals who experience a disability or death event after age 62 and before the retirement event. Add to SSASIM "scaled earnings" calculated by OCACT using 2005 Trustees Report assumptions.

2006-Feb
No enhancements.

2006-Jan
Upgrade to a newer version of the Open Watcom C++ compiler to build the PSG models, resulting in roughly a ten percent reduction in run execution time. Change the run specification file PENSIM preamble generated by the RSF Toolkit so that there is no emigration of foreign-born individuals, which is a highly unrealistic assumption, but one that aligns the PSG models with assumptions made in the Trustees Report and in the CBO CBOLT model.


2005-Dec
Revise PENSIM so that it directly writes binary coh files in the OLC and RCS modes of operation. Add OLC mode logic to PENSIM that forces immediate death of cohort sample individuals and their spouses in the year following the last simulation year in SSASIM. These two changes in the PSG models have no effect on output results, but reduce the execution time for an OLC run by about fifty percent. Fix a bug in the calculation of enhanced PIA (as in the CSSS reform proposals) and the minimum PIA (as in the Graham reform proposal) that was caused by assuming quarters of coverage are counted back to age 21 instead of age 22 (as in those reform proposals). Fix a bug in the calculation of minimum PIA for DI beneficiaries being converted to retired-worker beneficiaries under the Graham minimum PIA reform provision. Add GEMINI .scn output file containing aggregate statistics for the cohort sample in each scenario.

2005-Nov
Add a policy parameter that allows the maximum social security account contribution rate to vary over time.

2005-Oct
Add ability to specify (deterministic or stochastic) macrodemographic and macroeconomic assumption parameters using the run specification language in the RSF Toolkit. Add statistics to SSASIM .pod output file that report the age composition of the population. Add aggregate taxable earnings to the SSASIM .ben output file.

2005-Sep
Continue developing the RSF Toolkit, which will eventually become the user interface to the PSG models. Add policy parameter that enable specification of reforms that involve the scaling down of PIA-formula fractions for the DI eligibility event in a way that differs by eligibility age, by calendar year, and by formula fraction (i.e., in a "progressive" manner).

2005-Aug
No enhancements.

2005-Jul
Provide the first, incomplete version of the RSF Toolkit, which will serve as the new interface to the PSG models, providing the ability to specify a new model run using a simple run specification language without having to manipulate the model input databases by hand. Add several policy parameters to allow specification of reforms that establish non-linear excess payroll tax rate schedules.

2005-Jun
Add policy parameters that enable specification of reforms in which the bottom two and the top two OASDI PIA fractions decline at different rates (i.e., the "progressive indexing" of benefits). Add a policy parameter that allows specification of reforms in which disabled-worker beneficiaries are not converted to retired-worker beneficiaries at their normal retirement age. Add a policy parameter that allows specification of reforms in which disabled workers are not allowed access to DI benefits, and must take reduced early retirement benefits, if their age is greater than or equal to the early retirement age. Improve the resclean utility so that it automatically detects output files to delete in all three PSG model working directories.

2005-May
Introduce automatic installation and version upgrade capabilities. Provide initial version of the dbrun-create utility that automates some aspects of creating a new run in the PSG model input databases; this requires some revisions to the structure of the several SSASIM tables. Correct a bug that read the fraction of newborns who are girls as an integer rather than a real value.

2005-Apr
Add benchmark runs to the PSG model input databases that incorporate intermediate-cost assumptions from the 2005 Trustees Report. Streamline the specification of spouses and children of exemplary cohort individuals (ECI) in the SSASIM input database. Add a statistic to the SSASIM .pod output file that reports the population aged 65 or more in each simulation year. Add to PENSIM the ability to reset all random number streams at the start of each scenario, which permits simulating the exact same sample of cohort individuals in each scenario (when the reset parameter is true) or a different sample of cohort individuals in each scenario (when the reset parameter is false); the later is more reliable because there is no chance that the single scenario sample is statistically unrepresentative of the cohort population.

2005-Mar
Revise PSG model logic so that it is possible to specify an OLC mode run that has as many as 900 years in the actuarial test period (rather than the 75 years used in the Trustees Report). Simplify the specification of exemplary cohort individuals (ECI) in the SSASIM input database using OCACT "scaled earnings" as the default earnings history. Add a new OASI and DI payroll tax rate parameter that allows taxation of earnings above the maximum taxable earnings (MTE) without using the above MTE earnings in OASDI benefit calculations. Add new social security account policy parameter that allows a positive contribution rate on earnings above the MTE. Provide a command-line dbrun-delete utility that deletes from model input databases all rows used by the specified run that are not used by any other runs. Provide a command-line hist2d utility that produces two-dimensional histogram graphs from GEMINI output files.

2005-Feb
Streamline the specification of social security accounts in several ways. Add new DI policy parameter that allows specification of Graham reform proposal for DI PIA calculation when PIA fractions are declining. Revise the assumption about the timing within a calendar year of the payment of OASDI taxes and the receipt of OASDI benefits so that cashflows are assumed to occur at the start of the year, bringing the micro ECI and RCS modes of operation into line with the assumptions used in the macro CBA and OLC modes of operation. Add a GEMINI annuity provider revenue and cost output file that reports the solvency of the social security account annuity provider, which provides statistics needed to determine the pricing of annuities that will ensure the solvency of the provider.

2005-Jan
Add a fourth automatic adjustment method for the OASDI PIA formula fraction that sets this year's fraction equal to last year's fraction, which allows reforms that stop benefit "indexing" in some future year. Simplify the modeling of social security account clawbacks. Improve the logic used to estimate trust-fund income produced by the income taxation of social security benefits. Revise PENSIM job-start logic so that individuals never start a new job late on New Year's Eve. Add two statistics to the GEMINI .sum output file that report the lifetime present value of OASI and DI benefits received from the DB tier of social security.


2004-Dec
Add DI-to-OAI conversion logic option required to characterize the Graham proposal. Add two new statistics to the GEMINI .sum output file that record the age at which the first OASDI benefit is received and the dollar amount of that first benefit.

2004-Nov
Add ability to specify various automatic adjustments (or "indexing") methods for the fractions used in the OASDI PIA formula, which allows easier specification of the CSSS reform proposals and correct simulation of CSSS plan 2 under stochastic assumptions that imply variation in real wage growth across macroeconomic scenarios. Add ability of not applying the minimum PIA policy to PIA calculations at the disability event, which allows that specification of the minimum PIA policy contained in the Graham reform proposal.

2004-Oct
No enhancements.

2004-Sep
Add ability to increase the number of dropout years in the OASDI AIME formula, which adds flexibility to the longstanding ability to reduce the number of AIME dropout years. Add ability to specify a nonlinear minimum PIA formula as in the most recent Kolbe-Stenholm bill (see OCACT memo dated 2/11/04). Add ability to specify a maximum retired-worker spousal benefit as in the most recent Kolbe-Stenholm bill. Add to the PSG models distribution two new output analysis utilities, mean and pctiles, that quickly tabulate at the Windows command prompt the mean and percentile distributions of any statistic in GEMINI .sum and .bAA output files.

2004-Aug
No enhancements.

2004-Jul
No enhancements.

2004-Jun
Add new PSG model benchmark runs that use 2004 Trustees Report intermediate-cost assumptions.

2004-May
Add to the binary env file generated by SSASIM for PENSIM input OASDI statistics required for offset-integration benefit calculation logic for some defined-benefit pension plans. Add to the GEMINI .sum output file a second OASDI internal rate of return statistic so that the old statistic is computed using individual tax and benefit cashflows and the new statistic is computed using family-size-adjusted couple tax and benefit cashflows. Add age of disability onset and age of disability recovery to GEMINI .bAA output file.

2004-Apr
No enhancements.

2004-Mar
Change the assumption used in calculating summarized cost rates, summarized income rates, and the actuarial balance, concerning the timing of cashflows within each calendar year. Prior versions of SSASIM assumed that cashflows involved in the calculation of these present value statistics occur at the end of the calendar year. But Trustees Report Table IV.B6, which appeared for the first time in the 2003 report (see page 61), implies that the Office of the Chief Actuary assumes that the cashflows occur at the beginning of each calendar year in these present value calculations. The same within-year timing assumption is made beginning with this version of SSASIM. This change in present-value-calculation logic causes small changes in the summarized rates.

2004-Feb
Add SSASIM .ben output file that contains annual OASI and DI beneficiary head counts as well as annual values of the SSA average wage index (AWI), the CPI index, and OASDI maximum taxable earnings (MTE). Update PENSIM input parameters so that OLC mode runs use 2003 Trustees Report intermediate-cost assumptions same as CBA mode runs. Add ability to specify whether or not GEMINI computes an OASDI internal rate of return statistic for each individual, and whether or not the cashflows used in the calculation are individual or couple taxes and benefits. Add to GEMINI an annual actuarial adjustment factor (AAAF) to enable OLC mode runs using 2003 Trustees Report intermediate-cost assumptions to simulate aggregate future benefits that are as high as reported in the 2003 Trustees Report. The AAAF feature allows users to either use standard microsimulation methods and get lower benefits (as in the CBO CBOLT model) or to use the AAAF to emulate the higher benefit shown in the 2003 Trustees Report.

2004-Jan
Add features to support new OLC mode of operation, including a SSASIM population detail .pod output file, and immigration and emigration behavior in PENSIM. Add new OAI policy parameter that controls size of auxiliary child benefits so they can differ from auxiliary spouse benefits. Add present value of taxable earnings statistics to SSASIM .ssa output file. Add statistics to GEMINI .sum output file that adjust couple benefits, taxes, and earnings for family size, using two user-defined parameter values and a family size equivalence formula from a 1995 National Academy of Sciences report. Add this family size equivalent statistic to the GEMINI .adq output file.


This page was last revised on July 30, 2008.