Characteristics of Pension Plans in the United States, 1996-98
[penchar.pdf, 949K, 299pp]. Specifies and estimates a pension plan characteristics imputation model, designed for use in PENSIM, using data on employer-sponsored pension plans collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employee Benefits Survey (EBS), which is now part of the National Compensation Survey; survey data from (i) small private establishments for 1996, (ii) medium and large private establishments for 1997, and (iii) state and local government establishments for 1998, are combined into a single data set, which is augmented with information regarding the pension plans of federal government employees during the same period; paper commissioned by DOL Employee Benefit Security Administration, December 2003.

Simulation Analysis of the Decision to Annuitize Pension Balances
[annuity.pdf, 191K, 29pp]. Prior studies of life annuities that use classical dynamic programming methods to solve for annuity decisions find large gains from annuitization. The fact that few people actually buy annuities leads to an ``annuity puzzle.'' An alternative method of analysis, which uses concepts from approximate dynamic programming and samples of life histories from a pension simulation model, is shown to produce findings similar to those of prior studies. The alternative method is used to estimate the extent to which being married and having other retirement income reduces the gains from annuitization. The gain-reducing effects of annuity loading factors, loss aversion, and changing consumption needs are also estimated. Paper commissioned by DOL Employee Benefit Security Administration, September 2003.

Methods for Stochastic Trust Fund Projection
[stochsim.pdf, 180K, 25pp]. Identifies two problems with current methods used for stochastic projection of trust fund finances; tests alternative methods that avoid these problems on productivity growth rate and total fertility rate; finds that alternative methods provide a better fit of historical data and imply greater uncertainty in future trust fund finances than do conventional methods; paper commissioned by SSA Office of Policy, January 2003.

The Value of Social Security Disability Insurance
[divalue.pdf, 174K, 32pp]. Development of concept of "insurance value" of benefits, in contrast to actuarial value of benefits, with application to social security disability benefits; copy of AARP Public Policy Institute issue paper #2001-09, June 2001.

Validating Simulated Earnings Histories
[ehvalid.pdf, 217K, 44pp]. Development of CPS cohort validation data and validation methods, which are applied to lifetime earnings histories generated by SSASIM micro model of cohort individuals and by MINT earnings and disability equations, September 2000.

Who Has What Kind of Pension?
[whohas.pdf, 445K, 40pp]. Analysis of 1993 SIPP and 1992 HRS pension data with focus on statistical distribution of pension plan type and variation in pension wealth across different population groups, August 2000.

SSASIM Information
[SSASIM web page]. Summary of SSASIM, a social security policy simulation model for analysis of both the solvency and individual consequences of a wide range of reforms, including those with individual accounts.

PENSIM Information
[PENSIM web page]. Summary of PENSIM, a dynamic microsimulation model for analysis of the retirement income implications of government policies affecting employer-sponsored pensions.

GEMINI Information
[GEMINI web page]. Summary of GEMINI, a dynamic microsimulation model for analysis of social security policy reforms, including those with individual accounts.

Other Work on Pensions and Social Security
[MRH_vita.pdf, 58K, 9pp]. Several papers by Martin Holmer published in books and as reports.