Policy Simulation Group

Pension Projection Models

Well-Know Users of the PSG Models

Government Accountability Office (GAO)
GAO has been using the PSG models to produce quantitative analysis for a large number of pension and social security reports since 2001.
   Two examples of GAO pension analysis are: the October 2005 study of cash-balance conversions Private Pensions: Information on Cash Balance Pension Plans (GAO-06-42), and the November 2007 study of lifetime savings in defined-contribution plans Private Pensions: Low Defined Contribution Plan Savings May Pose Challenges to Retirement Security, Especially for Many Low-Income Workers (GAO-08-8).
   Two examples of recent GAO social security policy analysis are: the September 2006 study Social Security Reform: Implications of Different Indexing Choices (GAO-06-804), and the October 2007 study Social Security Reform: Issues for Disability and Dependent Benefits (GAO-08-26).

DOL Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA)
EBSA has sponsored most of the development of PENSIM since 1997. Recently EBSA has begun to use PENSIM in its regulatory impact analysis work.
   One example of EBSA regulatory impact analysis is the work involved with the issuance of the default investment regulation that is closely related to automatic enrollment in defined-contribution pension plans. The final regulation is described in Default Investment Alternatives Under Participant Directed Individual Account Plans (Federal Register, October 24, 2007). The regulatory impact analysis itself is described in methods and results.

SSA Office of Retirement and Disability Policy (ORDP)
ORDP has been using the PSG models for social security policy analysis since 2001.
   Almost all ORDP work with the PSG models is for distribution inside the U.S. government, rather than for public distribution. For example, it appears as if the PSG models were used extensively by ORDP during 2005 to supply White House staff with estimates of how different social security reforms would affect different kinds of beneficiaries, especially disabled workers.
   More recently, ORDP has undertaken a project using the PSG models that involves the specification and execution of thousands of reforms with the goal of summarizing the results using response surface methodologies in a way that could be used for public education on options for social security reform.

Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI)
EBRI supported the early development of SSASIM during the late 1990s and has used the PSG models since 2000.
   An example of the social security reform analysis conducted by EBRI is Estimating the Value of Changes in OASI Benefits Under Social Security Reforms (June 2006).