Pension Projection Models

Well-Know Users of the PSG Models

American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
AEI has used the PSG models to produce quantitative analysis of various social security and pension issues from 2008 until the present.

Government Accountability Office (GAO)
GAO used the PSG models to produce quantitative analysis for a large number of pension and social security reports from 2001 until 2016.

Five examples of GAO pension analysis are: the October 2005 study of cash-balance conversions Private Pensions: Information on Cash Balance Pension Plans (GAO-06-42), the November 2007 study of lifetime savings in defined-contribution plans Private Pensions: Low Defined Contribution Plan Savings May Pose Challenges to Retirement Security, Especially for Many Low-Income Workers (GAO-08-8), the July 2009 study of issues related to retirement income risks Private Pensions: Alternative Approaches Could Address Retirement Risks Faced by Workers but Pose Trade-offs (GAO-09-642), the March 2011 study of savers credit reforms in Private Pensions: Some Key Features Lead to an Uneven Distribution of Benefits (GAO-11-333), and the August 2013 study of automatic IRAs in Automatic IRAs: Lower-Earning Households Could Realize Increases in Retirement Income (GAO-13-699).

Two examples of GAO social security policy analysis are: the September 2006 study Social Security Reform: Implications of Different Indexing Choices (GAO-06-804), and the October 2007 study Social Security Reform: Issues for Disability and Dependent Benefits (GAO-08-26).

DOL Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA)
EBSA sponsored most of the development of PENSIM from 1997 until 2014. EBSA occasionally used PENSIM in its regulatory impact analysis work.

One example of EBSA regulatory impact analysis is the work involved with the issuance of the default investment regulation that is closely related to automatic enrollment in defined-contribution pension plans. The final regulation is described in Default Investment Alternatives Under Participant Directed Individual Account Plans (Federal Register, October 24, 2007). The regulatory impact analysis itself is described in methods and results.

SSA Office of Retirement and Disability Policy (ORDP)
ORDP began using the PSG models for social security policy analysis in 2001, and began sponsoring substantial development of SSASIM and GEMINI in 2003.

Almost all ORDP work with the PSG models is for distribution inside the U.S. government, rather than for public distribution. For example, it appears as if the PSG models were used extensively by ORDP during 2005 to supply White House staff with estimates of how different social security reforms would affect different kinds of beneficiaries, especially disabled workers.

ORDP also undertook a project using the PSG models that involved the specification and execution of thousands of reforms with the goal of summarizing the results using response surface methodologies in a way that could be used for public education on options for social security reform.

ORDP quit using the PSG models in 2010.

Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI)
EBRI supported the early development of SSASIM during the late 1990s and used SSASIM from 2000 until 2014.

An example of the social security reform analysis conducted by EBRI is Estimating the Value of Changes in OASI Benefits Under Social Security Reforms (EBRI Notes, June 2006).

This page was last revised on March 1, 2016.